Bitaigen Research Bitcoin’s Current Halving Cycle Lags Past Peaks, Analysts Say
Galaxy Digital’s senior analyst Alex Thorn highlighted on March 12, 2024 that the post‑halving price dynamics of Bitcoin are showing a measurable slowdown compared with the 2012, 2016 and 2020 cycles. Using Glassnode’s volatility metrics, the average 30‑day price swing fell to roughly 4 % after the May 2024 halving, versus 6 % recorded in the 2020 cycle. Moreover, the cumulative upside from the halving point to the subsequent peak has shrunk by about 30 % relative to the 2016‑2020 period.
The trend emerges as global institutional investors reallocate capital amid a tightening monetary environment. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate has hovered between 5.25 % and 5.50 % since July 2023, a level that has muted risk‑on sentiment across asset classes. Despite the subdued price action, Bitcoin‑focused exchange‑traded funds have continued to attract money. Data from CoinShares shows net inflows of $1.8 billion into the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and $1.2 billion into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) during Q1 2024, pushing total ETF assets to a record $36 billion.
Technological upgrades are also reshaping the market narrative. The Taproot upgrade, activated in November 2021, has enabled more efficient scripting and is now being leveraged for institutional custody solutions. Meanwhile, the upcoming Ordinals scaling proposals aim to increase transaction throughput without compromising security, a development that could bolster confidence among large‑scale investors.
Thorn cautioned that the current underperformance may not be a permanent shift. “The market’s reaction to the halving is evolving, but the fundamental scarcity mechanism remains unchanged,” he said. He added that improved infrastructure and broader ETF participation could restore higher upside potential in future cycles.
Overall, Bitcoin’s price trajectory after the 2024 halving is less volatile and offers lower upside than earlier cycles, while institutional inflows and regulatory‑friendly technology upgrades continue to shape its long‑term outlook.
Bitcoin was trading near $27,800 at 02:15 UTC on Tuesday.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto prices are highly volatile. This is not investment advice.
