Bitaigen Research 
In this article we outline the macro‑economic factors and on‑chain performance behind Ethereum’s recent price breakthrough of a key resistance level, and combine derivative‑position sentiment to provide a reasoned analysis of a possible bull‑market starting point in 2026. The goal is to give investors who follow Ethereum a panoramic view to help gauge the market’s direction. Please continue reading for the full details.
Macro‑economic Pressure and Professional Investors’ Defensive Stance
Since Ethereum’s price touched $2,200 on March 5, the market has undergone a correction of roughly 6 %. This pull‑back was not an isolated event; it coincided with a dip in U.S. equities triggered by an escalation in Middle‑East tensions. Crude‑oil prices rose to their highest level since July 2024 after supply disruptions, prompting institutional investors to shift toward more conservative asset allocations and to lower their expectations for global economic growth. At the same time, a federal court ruling ordered the government to refund more than $130 billion in tariffs to domestic companies, further heightening uncertainty in financial markets. Under the influence of these macro factors, the momentum that had lifted Ethereum 22 % from its February‑end low of $1,800 began to wane.
Derivative markets show that long‑side demand for leverage remains weak; the premium on the 30‑day ETH futures contract stays below the neutral 5 % threshold, indicating relatively tepid bullish sentiment.
Declining On‑Chain Activity and Its Impact on the Fee‑Burn Mechanism
After February, the usage intensity of the Ethereum network showed a noticeable decline. Weekly trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) fell from a peak of $20.2 billion to roughly $12.6 billion, weakening the overall deflationary pressure on the chain. At the same time, revenue from decentralized applications (DApps) dropped by about 47 % over the past month, leaving only $14.1 million. This trend mirrors the simultaneous volume drop on other public blockchains such as Solana, but for Ethereum it means that the mechanism of burning ETH to enhance token value is being undermined. To reignite upward price momentum, Ethereum will need to boost genuine usage demand and improve its competitiveness at the transaction‑validation layer, thereby driving gas fees higher and increasing the ETH burn rate.
Institutional Buying Strength: BlackRock’s Positioning
Recently, market sentiment has received a notable lift from institutional capital. DeFiTracer disclosed on X that BlackRock is purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges through affiliated wallets, involving assets worth several million dollars. This sustained buying pressure sends a strong signal to the market: institutional demand for digital assets remains robust. Historical experience suggests that such institutional entry often boosts investor confidence and can provide support for future price appreciation.
Technical Interpretation: From Channel Breakout to Potential Targets
Ethereum’s recent price action formed a key resistance around $2,100. On March 3 the price found support above the 0.5 channel, then gradually accumulated upward momentum. Subsequently, ETH successfully broke out of the channel structure and breached the $2,100 barrier, launching a new upward thrust. On the 4‑hour chart, the 200‑period moving average currently acts as a significant resistance; if it can be turned into support, short‑term targets may lie near $2,376 and $2,491. The current critical support level sits around $1,915; as long as price remains above this level, the overall structure remains bullish.
Short‑Side Liquidations Driving Prices Higher Again
Forced liquidations in the derivatives market have been a major driver of ETH’s rapid recent price rise. Coinglass data shows that about $155 million worth of Ethereum positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, the majority of which were short positions. When the price spikes unexpectedly, those short positions are compelled to close, creating strong buying pressure that further pushes ETH past the $2,100 mark.
Price Outlook: Can It Hold Above $2,100?
With support holding near the current level, the market generally maintains an optimistic short‑term outlook for ETH. If upward momentum continues, the price could oscillate within the $2,376–$2,491 range and may even approach $2,500. Conversely, a break below the key $1,915 support would weaken the short‑term bullish structure.
Further Upside Potential: $2,200–$2,600 Zone
Crypto Patel’s latest analysis on X points out that ETH is now approaching $2,200. If bullish pressure persists, the next wave could target the $2,500–$2,600 interval, a region that forms a clear fair value gap (FVG) on higher‑timeframe charts. Meanwhile, the downside defense to watch is $1,750; a breach of that level would give bears room to re‑assert pressure.
Weekly Structure Suggests a Potential Trend Reversal
Looking at a broader weekly perspective, Ethereum has recently completed roughly 64 % of an ABC correction. Cycles With Bach noted on X that after a similar prior correction, the market launched a strong rally. The current weekly pattern echoes past formations, and the RSI is attempting an upward reversal from oversold levels. If this structure continues along the same trajectory, analysts anticipate that ETH could eventually target the $3,000–$4,000 range over the long term.
Institutional Position Remains Strong
Even though on‑chain activity has declined, Ethereum still leads in total value locked (TVL). Its ecosystem—including layer‑2 scaling solutions—accounts for roughly 65 % of the blockchain market’s TVL, with base‑layer TVL around $55.4 billion, far surpassing competitor Solana’s $6.8 billion. This data underscores institutional investors’ preference for Ethereum’s security and decentralisation attributes, despite the lower fees and faster experiences offered by other chains.
Comprehensive Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities in Breaking $2,500
Ethereum sits at the intersection of multiple forces: macro‑economic uncertainty, declining on‑chain usage, and low‑leverage demand in derivatives all exert pressure on the $2,500 target. Nevertheless, continuous inflows of institutional capital and potential technical breakthroughs still leave room for upward price movement. If ETH can firmly re‑establish above $2,400, market sentiment may recover quickly; however, short‑term price action will likely continue to mirror the broader performance of global risk assets.
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