Bitaigen Research Standard Chartered Bank believes that ahead of the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin could climb to $100,000 driven by ETF inflows, macro‑policy shifts and non‑farm payroll data, with global market sentiment providing additional momentum.
Starting from Standard Chartered’s latest research, we dissect how the U.S. election, ETF dynamics and macro data together could steer Bitcoin’s price path. The article outlines the key logic, evaluates potential impacts under different political scenarios, and helps readers grasp the deeper forces behind market moves – a worthwhile read.
Why does Standard Chartered forecast a surge in Bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 before the U.S. election?
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, told *The Block* that BTC could break the $100,000 mark before the November U.S. presidential election. In an email, he listed several catalysts and offered a more granular outlook on BTC’s subsequent price trajectory.
- Impact of the election outcome: Kendrick argues that if Donald Trump wins, BTC could edge toward $150,000 by year‑end; by contrast, the Biden administration has taken a pragmatic stance on spot‑ETH ETF approvals but later vetoed measures related to SAB 121, leaving Trump with a slight edge in crypto‑friendliness.
- Macro data stimulus: The upcoming U.S. non‑farm payroll report is seen as a short‑term catalyst. Kendrick says, “If the data comes out positive, we could see a new historic high over the weekend, laying the groundwork for a move toward $80,000 by the end of June.”
- Long‑term price expectations: He reiterates a $150,000 target for year‑end 2024 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. In his view, a $150,000 market cap would push BTC into the $3 trillion club, trailing only NVIDIA.
Two months earlier, Standard Chartered released a report taking an optimistic stance on BTC and Ethereum through the end of 2024 and beyond. The report projected BTC could reach $150,000, while Ethereum might climb to $8,000, and identified inflows into a U.S. spot BTC ETF as a primary support pillar.
“The fresh inflow into the spot BTC ETF is coming mainly from sticky, pension‑type capital,” Kendrick and colleague Suki Cooper noted, highlighting the stability of the BTC investment trend.
Three valuation pillars behind Standard Chartered’s bullish BTC case
- Gold‑market analogy
- By referencing the price behavior after the launch of the U.S. gold ETF, Standard Chartered estimates that BTC could rise to $200,000 post‑ETF, roughly 4.3 × its pre‑ETF level.
- Asset‑allocation model
- Using an 80 % gold + 20 % BTC optimized portfolio, the model suggests a BTC price around $190,000.
- Linear relationship between ETF inflows and price
- Assuming total ETF inflows sit at the midpoint of Standard Chartered’s estimate of $75 billion, a linear extrapolation yields a potential BTC price of $250,000.
Standard Chartered sums up: “$200,000 is a ‘reasonable’ price level for BTC by the end of 2025, and it could serve as the midpoint of a consolidation range.” Further analysis indicates that if ETF inflows continue to accelerate or institutional portfolio managers increase their allocations, BTC could breach $250,000 at some point in 2025.
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The above is Bitaigen’s (比特根) editorial team’s detailed interpretation of Standard Chartered’s forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) will surge to $100,000 ahead of the U.S. presidential election, provided for readers’ reference.
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