Bitcoin Under $115k After Fed Rate Cut: Futures Outlook

Why Bitcoin can’t hold above $115,000 after the Fed’s rate cut, analyzed with futures open interest, spot volume and on‑chain data for a risk outlook.

In this article we dissect why Bitcoin still struggles to hold a key support level after the latest Federal Reserve rate cut, and we combine changes in futures open interest with spot trading volume to offer a multi‑angle short‑term outlook. By crossing macro‑policy signals with on‑chain data, readers can gain a clearer view of potential risks and opportunities. We recommend continuing to read for the full analysis.

Bitcoin has been unable to stabilize above the critical $115,000 threshold even after the Fed’s latest 25‑basis‑point rate reduction. Despite the dovish tone from policymakers, BTC’s price on the hourly chart continues to hover around that level without generating a decisive upward thrust.

Key takeaways

After the Fed lowered the target range for the benchmark rate to 4.0 %–4.25 %, Bitcoin has struggled to stay above $115,000.
The Fed signaled that an additional 50‑basis‑point cut could be possible by 2025.
Futures open interest has surged sharply, while spot‑market trading volume has been on a downtrend.

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The Fed’s Policy Shift

In the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on Wednesday, officials highlighted a noticeable slowdown in job growth, emerging signs of a rise in the unemployment rate, and inflation that remains relatively elevated. The statement specifically pointed out that downside risks to employment have increased, nudging the policy stance further dovish. At the same time, the FOMC reaffirmed its 2 % inflation target, but with the backdrop of a slowing economy, the focus has shifted toward supporting growth and employment.

Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran further indicated a preference for larger‑than‑half‑point rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will continue on a accommodative path.

On the one‑hour candlestick chart, BTC briefly slipped below $115,000 before attempting to close back above that mark. Overall, the price is forming a sideways consolidation pattern, lacking a clear directional bias. Analysts suggest that traders are weighing the Fed’s long‑term easing outlook, lingering inflation uncertainty, and broader global market risks, leading to a relatively cautious posture.

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Remaining Rate‑Cut Expectations for the Year

Since the beginning of 2024, the Fed has executed its first 25‑basis‑point cut in nine months, moving the federal funds target range from 4.25 %–4.5 % to 4.0 %–4.25 %. According to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability of another 25‑basis‑point cut in October stands at 87.7 %, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged is only 12.3 %.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen noted that markets are currently pricing in a cumulative 75‑basis‑point easing by year‑end. A research note from China International Capital Corp (CICC) warned that if employment data continues to disappoint, another 25‑basis‑point cut could arrive in October, though a rebound in inflation might limit further easing. Huatai Securities has raised its forecast for the number of cuts in 2024 to three, expecting additional 25‑basis‑point reductions in both October and December.

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Market Spotlight: CZ Rumors and BNB Momentum

On September 17, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) changed his X (formerly Twitter) bio from “ex‑@binance” to “@binance”, a move widely interpreted as a signal that he will return to the platform. At the same time, reports surfaced that Binance is nearing a compliance agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice. If the agreement becomes effective, it could lift certain regulatory restrictions on the exchange. *(U.S. users should access Binance’s services through Binance.US rather than the global platform.)*

The news sparked a fresh rally in BNB, pushing the token to new highs, and projects on the BNB Chain ecosystem recorded notable gains. For example, TST rose from $0.03 to $0.073, MUBARAK climbed from $0.03 to $0.044, and THE surged from roughly $0.30 toward $0.465.

The Solana ecosystem also benefited, with SOL trading around $245. Its sub‑project PUMP briefly approached $0.009, a >100 % increase over its public‑sale price, while W broke the $0.10 barrier after announcing a Token 2.0 upgrade plan.

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Short‑Term BTC Outlook

According to Cointelegraph, analyst Nic Puckrin argues that the market has already priced in the Fed’s rate cut, which could trigger short‑term “sell‑side” pressure. While lower borrowing costs are fundamentally supportive of risk assets over the longer horizon, the immediate optimism may evaporate quickly.

Following the FOMC announcement, the number of BTC futures open contracts rose sharply, indicating that futures traders are bracing for heightened volatility. In contrast, spot‑market turnover continued its decline.

The surge in open interest suggests that current price swings are being driven largely by leveraged positions rather than genuine spot‑buying pressure. Without robust spot demand, the sustainability of the move remains questionable; a concentrated liquidation of leveraged positions could produce sharp market swings.

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Possible Future Directions

A report from Matrixport notes that in a lax monetary environment, the notion that “good news immediately turns into bad news” is hard to substantiate; instead, the environment may actually fuel a continued bullish trend. The market has already digested multiple rate‑cut expectations, and the prevailing dovish outlook could provide the momentum needed for Bitcoin to chase new highs.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, projected in a client memo that SOL could perform strongly before year‑end, with ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases potentially driving a price trajectory similar to BTC and ETH. He suggested that even modest capital inflows might significantly lift the price within a few months, anticipating an “epic” rally by the end of the year.

BitMine relayed fund analyst Mark Newton’s view that ETH could climb to $5,500 by mid‑October.

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*Disclaimer:* Cryptocurrency gains may be subject to taxation in your jurisdiction; please consult a tax professional for guidance.

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That concludes the full content of “Fed Cuts 25 bps, Bitcoin Still Slides Below $115k – Short‑Term BTC Analysis.” For more Bitcoin‑related insights, search for past articles on Bitaigen or continue reading the recommended pieces below. Thank you for following and supporting Bitaigen!