Bitaigen Research 
After the U.S. Supreme Court declared portions of the Trump‑era tariffs illegal and ordered refunds, Bitcoin traded within a $65,000‑$70,000 range in the following sessions, with an overall down‑trend still evident.
Bitcoin reacted immediately to the Supreme Court’s decision on Trump trade tariffs when Wall Street opened this week, resulting in a bounded price swing.
Starting from the intersection of macro‑policy and market sentiment, we outline how the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Trump tariffs left a brief imprint on Bitcoin’s price, dissect the underlying capital flows and short‑seller pressure, and highlight details that may help you spot potential turning points ahead. Continue reading for the full analysis.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. Supreme Court ruled that part of the tariffs were unlawful, prompting a modest rebound in risk assets.
- The latest U.S. inflation data reduced expectations of a March rate cut.
- Bitcoin (BTC) remains confined to a stable band, with bears still viewed as the dominant force.
Supreme Court Decision Strikes Trump Tariffs
TradingView data shows $67,000 as the focal price level for Bitcoin, while U.S. equities posted an overall uptrend.
BTC/USD 1‑hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The reaction across risk assets was relatively muted because the 170‑page opinion clarified that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President unilateral authority to impose tariffs.
IEEPA: The legal framework allowing the U.S. government to employ economic measures during emergencies.
Nonetheless, discussions about refunds quickly heated up. Trade‑resource outlet Kobesky Letter estimated that the potential refund pool could reach $150 billion. In a post on X, the outlet wrote: “Today’s Supreme Court ruling will be cited for decades to come.”
The episode eclipsed earlier U.S. macro data releases. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—has risen to 3 %, the highest level since the end of 2023.
U.S. PCE data (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
At the same time, Q4 2025 GDP grew at a modest 1.4 % year‑over‑year, well below the projected 3 %. Those figures further dimmed the likelihood of a March rate cut by the Fed. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 0.25 % rate reduction now sits at just 4 %.
Fed’s March FOMC target‑rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
On Thursday, trading‑resource firm Mosaic Asset said that despite a bleak rate outlook, equities could still perform well. In its updated report the firm noted: “Even if the Fed holds rates steady for an extended period, the current financial environment remains more accommodative than average, which should still lend support to a bullish market.”
“A combination of a relatively loose market environment and strong market breadth suggests that positioning trades are still appropriate (at least for now).”
Bitcoin Fails to Escape the “Downward Trajectory”
Bitcoin participants remain wary of the market’s fragility. The latest analysis indicates that bears are still “in control.”
Trader‑analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the importance of the 200‑week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and warned that Bitcoin is at risk of flipping that EMA into resistance after a break below.
“Historical patterns show that once the weekly close falls beneath the 200‑week EMA, a subsequent retest by shorts that lifts the EMA into a new resistance zone can accelerate the next bearish phase.”
Bitcoin/USD weekly chart with 200‑day MA overlay. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Earlier this week, trader‑commentator Skew observed that Bitcoin’s localized price range suggests “value is forming.”
- Supply is clearly clustering around the $70,000 mark.
- Demand, after testing, has steadied near $65,000.
He wrote on X: “Only a sustained break above $70,000 or a decisive dip below $65,000 will trigger a trend‑driven move.”
“Given the current down‑trend, the $72,000 level is especially critical—many shorts place stop‑loss orders just above it; a break below would invalidate the short‑term trend.”
The above constitutes the timeline and detailed analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price action after the Trump tariff ruling. For further updates, follow Bitaigen (比特根).
*Note: Cryptocurrency gains may be taxable in your local jurisdiction. U.S. users should trade on Binance.US (not the global Binance platform). Fiat transactions are typically processed via USD, SEPA, or SWIFT.*
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- Bitcoin Manipulation Allegations & Spot ETF Inflow Surge
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