Bitaigen Research In the current macro environment fraught with uncertainty and a still‑depressed crypto market sentiment, prices have shown a slight rebound, yet this has not translated into broader investor optimism. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone, although on‑chain data and trading activity for some projects are moving in a direction contrary to the overall mood.
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We examine Hyperliquid from three angles—macro environment, on‑chain data, and community sentiment—to dissect its unique mechanisms and potential drivers, helping readers objectively assess HYPE’s growth potential. This article will delve into the divergence between the platform’s revenue model and market sentiment, offering analytical perspectives for reference. Please continue reading.
Community Generally Bullish on HYPE
In this context, Hyperliquid (ticker HYPE) has become the focal point of community discussion. Many users on X (formerly Twitter) have expressed the view that, even amid external turbulence, holding HYPE may still be a relatively prudent choice. For example, one user noted: “When global supply shortages drive commodity prices soaring, Hyperliquid can capture the corresponding speculative demand, and fees and liquidation revenues will flow back to HYPE, allowing it to outperform the broader market.”
Another community member likewise emphasized that the platform’s HIP‑3 mechanism enables users to create permission‑less perpetual contract markets on‑chain, with underlying assets directly pegged to traditional financial instruments such as the Nasdaq‑100 index or precious metals. As long as sufficient collateral (approximately 500,000 HYPE tokens) is supplied, these markets can be launched, further expanding the platform’s revenue sources.
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Arthur Hayes: HYPE Target Price $150
BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes recently disclosed a target price of $150 for HYPE, roughly five times its current level. He argues that, rather than focusing on short‑term volatility or making rash short‑sell bets, investors should turn their attention to decentralized derivatives exchanges (DEXs). Reflecting on the sideways market of 2023, Hayes pointed out that despite overall trader sentiment being subdued, platforms like GMX still achieved solid growth through fee revenue.
Hayes highlighted that Hyperliquid’s business model differs from traditional institutions such as Tether or Circle: about 97% of the platform’s revenue is used to buy back and burn HYPE tokens, thereby reducing circulating supply and providing long‑term price support. In his article he wrote, “At the current price of roughly $30, a $150 target implies about a 5‑fold upside.”
“My target price for HYPE in August 2026 is $150.” – Arthur Hayes
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What Conditions Must Be Met for Hyperliquid to Explode?
For the aforementioned target to become realistic, the platform must achieve a significantly larger revenue base. Annualized revenue currently stands at about $843 million; to justify a $150 valuation, revenue would need to climb to roughly $1.4 billion.
The HIP‑3 mechanism is seen as the key growth engine. It allows users to create permission‑less perpetual contract markets on‑chain and directly anchor the underlying assets to traditional instruments. Since its launch, HIP‑3 has contributed approximately 10% of total platform revenue, and if more traders begin using on‑chain hedging for traditional assets, this share could expand further.
In addition, the platform’s ADV/OI (average daily volume / open interest) ratio is regarded as an important metric for assessing the authenticity of trading activity. Hayes cited data stating: “Among the top five perpetual DEXs, Hyperliquid has the lowest ADV/OI ratio, indicating that its volume is more genuine.”
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&HYPE: Price and On‑Chain Metrics
At the time of writing, HYPE trades around $34.98, up 13.37% over the past 24 hours. Despite the strong price movement, on‑chain metrics suggest that market sentiment remains cautious. Data from Santiment shows that between mid‑January and mid‑February, development activity for the project stayed robust, but overall sentiment did not warm in tandem.
It is worth noting that Hayes is not the first to voice confidence in HYPE. Back on February 21, he tweeted that he was continuously increasing his HYPE position and set a $150 target, initially aiming for July 2026 and later adjusting to August 2026, contingent on the platform reaching annualized revenue of about $1.4 billion.
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Final Summary
Hyperliquid demonstrates the authenticity of its trading activity through a low ADV/OI ratio, suggesting that liquidity primarily stems from genuine users rather than artificially inflated volume. At the same time, overall market sentiment remains guarded, and investors tend to stay on the sidelines until clearer revenue growth and heightened on‑chain activity emerge.
Synthesizing community sentiment, Hayes’s price target, and the platform’s revenue model, the prospect of HYPE achieving a 5‑fold increase has a logical basis, but it still hinges on critical growth drivers—such as widespread adoption of HIP‑3—and a substantial boost in revenue scale before it can translate into actual price performance.
The above constitutes the complete analysis of Hyperliquid (HYPE) price forecast: How likely is a 5‑fold rise for HYPE? For more related content, please follow other articles on Bitaigen (比特根).
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