Bitaigen Research 
Strategy has positioned itself as the world’s first and largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. The firm (formerly known as MicroStrategy) held roughly 650,000 BTC as of early December 2025, representing about 3 % of the total issued Bitcoin supply. This makes it the highest‑valued publicly listed Bitcoin holder to date.
In this article we outline Strategy’s logic for building a Bitcoin position, explain the capital‑raising and net‑asset‑value‑to‑market‑cap (mNAV) mechanisms that underpin its holdings, and examine what market or internal signals could trigger a sale decision. By looking through these lenses, readers can gauge the potential direction of the treasury company’s future actions and evaluate them against recent industry developments.
Key Takeaways
- Approximately 650,000 BTC appear on the balance sheet, the most of any listed company.
- The business model relies on raising capital in public markets and converting that capital into Bitcoin, while striving to keep the market‑cap‑to‑net‑asset‑value ratio (mNAV) above 1.
- CEO Phong Le describes any Bitcoin sale as a “last resort,” considered only when mNAV falls below 1 and the ability to obtain fresh capital is significantly constrained.
- Even if a partial sale occurs, Bitcoin’s daily turnover runs into tens of billions of USD, so Strategy’s disposals would likely be targeted rather than a full‑scale exit.
For traditional investors, Strategy’s stock is often seen as a leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. Compared with buying Bitcoin directly, shareholders let the company handle financing and purchasing, thereby obtaining indirect exposure to the digital asset.
Recently, CEO Phong Le disclosed that the firm would tap its Bitcoin reserves only under extreme circumstances. Media headlines frequently contain the word “sale,” but the company stresses that any disposition would serve as a risk‑buffer measure, not a fundamental shift away from its long‑term Bitcoin strategy.
This piece dissects Strategy’s Bitcoin operating model and highlights concrete factors that could trigger a sale, helping readers interpret upcoming developments without being swayed by panic or hype. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute any investment recommendation.
*Did you know?* The latest estimates show institutions now hold close to 20 % of all mined Bitcoin.
How Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) Engine Works
From an operational standpoint, Strategy follows a relatively straightforward financial loop:
- It raises capital in the capital markets through a “follow‑the‑price” (ATM) common‑stock program, multiple series of perpetual preferred shares (e.g., STRK, STRF), and occasional convertible debt.
- The overwhelming majority of the raised funds are used to purchase Bitcoin, which is then recorded as a core treasury asset.
- A set of key metrics is monitored to assess the sustainability of this model and confirm value creation for shareholders.
Two metrics are most relevant to the discussion in this article:
- Bitcoin per Share (BPS): The amount of Bitcoin attributable to each fully diluted share. Strategy treats this as a critical performance indicator and discloses it regularly.
- Market‑Cap‑to‑Net‑Asset‑Value Ratio (mNAV): The company’s total market capitalization divided by the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. As long as mNAV exceeds 1, the stock trades at a premium, meaning the market values the Bitcoin assets higher than the spot Bitcoin price.
When the stock trades at a healthy premium, Strategy can issue new common or preferred shares with relatively low dilution, continue expanding its Bitcoin stash, and raise BPS. This “premium financing → buy‑back → increase BPS” cycle is the core strategy currently championed by management.
The “Last‑Resort” – Sale Trigger Mechanism
In a recent interview, Le made it clear that the company would contemplate using its Bitcoin reserves only if both of the following hard conditions are met:
- mNAV falls below 1 – i.e., the market cap drops to or below the book value of its Bitcoin holdings.
- Fresh capital sources dry up – the market no longer subscribes to common or perpetual preferred shares on reasonable terms, constraining financing avenues.
He calls such a disposition a “last‑resort” move, intended to meet obligations such as preferred‑share dividends rather than as a routine asset‑sale plan. In short, when the stock price equals or undercuts Bitcoin’s spot value and the company cannot refinance itself by issuing new equity, a modest Bitcoin sell‑off becomes a secondary option to preserve the overall capital structure.
Real‑World Factors That Could Push Strategy Toward the Sale Threshold
Multiple pressures would need to converge before the “last‑resort” button is pressed:
Macro Environment and Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin has retreated from its October historical peak of roughly $126,000 USD to the mid‑$80,000 USD range, a decline of about 30 %. A deeper or more prolonged correction would directly shrink the book value of Strategy’s holdings and typically exert simultaneous pressure on its share price.
Share‑Price Performance and mNAV
Since the stock fell 30‑60 % from its early highs, mNAV has narrowed markedly. In mid‑November, trading prices briefly approached or slipped below Bitcoin’s spot value, indicating an mNAV close to 1.
Financing Climate
Strategy depends on its pre‑registered issuance platform and the ATM program to continually roll out common and perpetual preferred shares. Should these issuances slow markedly, or investors demand higher yields, financing would become tighter.
Internal Obligations
The firm must pay sizable preferred‑share dividends and debt interest each year. Analysts estimate preferred‑share dividend obligations could reach several hundred million USD annually. If financing stalls, these fixed outflows would increase cash‑flow pressure.
Management continues to stress a long‑term Bitcoin‑holding stance; the scenarios above merely sketch possible risk events under extreme stress.
*Did you know?* On‑chain analysis suggests that 3‑4 million BTC may be permanently lost in “dead wallets,” meaning a sizable portion of supply will never re‑enter the market.
The Practical Impact of a Sale on the Bitcoin Market
Given Strategy’s roughly 650,000 BTC stake, any signal that it might shift from “never sell” to “sell under pressure” naturally attracts market attention. However, several points should be kept in mind:
- Massive market depth – Bitcoin’s daily spot and derivatives turnover routinely exceeds tens of billions of USD; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs can see net inflows/outflows of a billion USD in a single day. Even if Strategy sells a modest slice, the effect would be diluted by deep liquidity.
- Scale and pacing of any sale – Le has repeatedly stated that any disposal would be targeted and partial, aimed at meeting debt or dividend obligations rather than a wholesale exit.
- Pricing in advance – Markets often price in potential risks before formal disclosures. The recent parallel pull‑back of Bitcoin and Strategy’s share price, together with discussions around mNAV, exemplify this pre‑emptive pricing.
Consequently, the so‑called “last‑resort” does not equate to a publicly announced large‑scale Bitcoin liquidation plan.
*Did you know?* In Q3 2025, average daily crypto spot trading volume was about $155 billion USD, with roughly $14 billion USD of crypto derivatives traded on CME each day.
Practical Guide for Monitoring Strategy’s Moves
To stay updated on the company without being swayed by noise or click‑bait headlines, focus on the following sources and key indicators:
- Regulatory filings – U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 8‑K reports and supplemental prospectuses promptly reveal new capital‑raising activity and Bitcoin‑holding changes.
- Corporate announcements – Strategy’s official press releases and its dedicated “Bitcoin Purchase” page aggregate recent purchases and cumulative holdings.
- Social‑media sentiment – While meme‑driven posts (e.g., “green dot” jokes, laser‑eye memes, apocalypse theories) can reflect broader market mood, any rumor about forced sales or insolvency should be cross‑checked against official documents and actual data before forming a conclusion.
Disclaimer: Individual financial situations, investment horizons, and risk tolerances vary. This article provides general information only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. If needed, consult a qualified financial professional for advice tailored to your circumstances. Additionally, crypto gains may be taxable under the laws of your jurisdiction; consider SEPA/SWIFT fiat transactions and, for U.S. residents, use Binance.US rather than the global Binance platform.
The above constitutes a concise analysis of Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) plan and the key factors that could influence future sales. For more insights on Bitcoin‑holding strategies and timing decisions, feel free to explore other articles from Bitaigen (比特根).
Related Reading
- MicroStrategy Risks: Index Exclusion, NAV Premium, Debt
- MicroStrategy's 40k BTC Blitz: Can It Reverse 2026 Market?
- STRC Shares Surge as MicroStrategy Boosts Bitcoin Holdings
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