Bitaigen Research 
We start by examining the link between interest‑rate expectations and ETF cash flows, unpacking the market momentum behind Bitcoin’s return to high levels. The article outlines how Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations influence net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and it discusses the profit‑loss turning point for BlackRock’s ETF investors. If you want to understand the deeper logic of this rally, keep reading for a full analysis.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Rate‑Expectation Outlook
Following the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 10, market expectations for a rate cut rose sharply. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25‑basis‑point reduction jumped from 39 % a week ago to 85 % today. A lower‑rate outlook is seen as a potential catalyst for upward Bitcoin price movement, especially as Bitcoin has once again broken the $90,000 barrier.
Improved rate expectations have simultaneously driven cash flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from Farside Investors show that these ETFs recorded consecutive days of net inflows for the first time in the past two weeks, with Wednesday’s total reaching roughly $21 million. This trend is viewed positively for overall Bitcoin sentiment, because K33 Research notes that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF was the only fund in 2025 to achieve a net positive inflow.
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Position P&L Turning Point
After Bitcoin climbed back above $90,000, the cumulative unrealized profit for holders of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) returned to $3.2 billion. Blockchain data platform Arkham highlighted in an X post that the combined profit of IBIT and ETHA holders peaked at about $40 billion on October 7, then fell to $630 million four days ago. Today, the average purchase price across all BlackRock ETFs is essentially at the break‑even level.
This means that, as holders no longer face substantial paper losses, the pressure to sell the ETF should ease further. After a net outflow of $903 million on November 20, cash‑flow dynamics have shown a clear improvement.
Holders’ Mindset and Long‑Term Positioning
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, told Cointelegraph that net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will be a key driver of Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025. As a global asset‑management giant, BlackRock’s assets under management reached $13.5 trillion by the third quarter of 2025.
From a behavioral standpoint, many ETF holders are long‑term allocators. Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, said that even when book values show a loss, these investors tend to keep their positions rather than liquidate quickly on short‑term swings. Glassnode analyst Sean Rose previously noted that when Bitcoin’s price slipped to around $89,600, close to the flow‑weighted cost basis, some holders found themselves with paper losses.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s re‑attainment of the $90,000 threshold, together with the recovery of profits in BlackRock’s ETFs, signals a warming of market sentiment. The resurgence of inflows, improving rate‑cut expectations, and the patient stance of long‑term investors collectively lay the groundwork for Bitcoin potentially reaching new all‑time highs before the end of 2025. For deeper analysis of the BTC break above $90 k and BlackRock ETF’s turnaround, stay tuned to Bitaigen’s upcoming coverage.
Related Reading
- BlackRock Puts Bitcoin ETF Beside Treasuries & Tech Giants
- Bitcoin dips below $80,000, briefly under $76,000
- Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs Lose $1B, Market Down 6%
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⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto prices are highly volatile. This is not investment advice.
