Bitaigen Research Ethereum Reclaims the $4,000 Level – Three Key Drivers That Could Propel ETH Prices Higher in October: Declining Exchange Supply, Surge in DEX Volume, and Historical Seasonal Performance
ETH rebounded to $4,200 before the market opened this week, and both on‑chain data and technical indicators suggest traders are positioning for a price recovery in October.
Key Takeaways
- Exchange ETH supply is dropping, hinting at potential upside momentum.
- Ethereum DEX trading volume jumped 47% over the past week, signalling improving market sentiment.
- Historical data shows that ETH’s price gains an average of 4.77% in October.
On Monday, ETH once again broke the $4,000 barrier, climbing roughly 3.5% within 24 hours. This renewed rally has lifted expectations for a bullish October, with multiple on‑chain, historical and technical signals providing support.
ETH/USD hourly chart. Source: Cointelegraph / TradingView
Based on the latest on‑chain fund flows, exchange position changes, and a seasonal volatility model, we systematically assess the underlying drivers of ETH’s current recovery and identify the most relevant indicators to watch. By combining metrics such as the growth of active on‑chain addresses, the explosion of decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, and global macro‑level capital movements, we dissect the logic behind the price uptick and provide a reference framework for readers to gauge potential market turning points in October. The following sections elaborate on these points in detail. In parallel, we evaluate how market‑sentiment gauges and technical patterns align, helping to judge whether the momentum is likely to persist.
Exchange ETH Supply Decline
According to Cointelegraph, the amount of ETH held on centralized exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since 2016, primarily driven by continued accumulation from institutional investors.
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoMe attributes the supply contraction to three main factors:
- Investors moving assets into self‑custody wallets;
- Staking ETH on various platforms or transferring it to other services;
- Inflows to newly created wallets.
At the same time, the net outflow of ETH from exchanges is on an upward trajectory. In a Quicktake published on Saturday, CryptoMe noted that the current outflow volume is approaching the levels seen in the late‑2022 bear market, when quantitative tightening policies peaked.
The fallout from the FTX collapse further accelerated the withdrawal of ETH from exchanges.
“Is ETH on the brink of an explosive rally?” CryptoMe asked, adding: “When demand is triggered, the upward move starts. A lower reserve base lays the groundwork for this ascent.”
Ethereum DEX Volume Jumps 47% Within One Week
During the past seven days, DEX activity on the Ethereum network grew by 47%, rising from $22.9 billion the week before to $33.9 billion, underscoring a strengthening bullish sentiment.
Weekly Ethereum DEX volume. Source: DefiLlama
The growth is also evident on Layer‑2 scaling solutions such as Base, Arbitrum, and Polygon. By contrast, competing blockchains displayed more modest activity over the same period: Solana DEX volume rose only 6%, while BNB‑based DEXes grew 8.3%.
Project‑specific highlights:
- Maverick Protocol saw a 30% increase in volume;
- Uniswap posted a 26% week‑over‑week rise.
Historically, surges in DEX volume have often coincided with ETH price appreciation. For example, between June 30 and August 14 2023, weekly DEX volume spiked 276% to a record $40 billion, during which ETH’s price nearly doubled.
Will ETH “Soar” in October?
Monitoring data from CoinGlass shows that ETH/USD fell about 6% throughout September, aligning with typical historical price‑behavior patterns.
However, the average monthly return for October stands at 4.77%, suggesting that ETH could climb from its current level to roughly $4,300.
ETH/USD monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass
Crypto analyst Marzell highlighted on X (formerly Twitter) last week: “Ethereum’s monthly returns exhibit a clear seasonal pattern, with October and the months that follow typically entering a bull phase.” He added: “October often serves as the catalyst; a Q4 ETH rally is worth watching.”
Another analyst, Midas, also forecasts a strong Q4 bull market. In a Monday X post, Midas wrote: “ETH is repeating the trajectory seen in Q3 2020,” and noted that the previous occurrence led to Q4 gains exceeding 100%.
Long‑Term Ethereum Price Outlook
| Year | Predicted Low (USD) | Predicted Average (USD) | Predicted High (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3,978.94 | 5,758.09 | 7,537.24 |
| 2026 | 1,110.77 | 3,013.00 | 4,915.23 |
| 2027 | 1,188.15 | 2,038.42 | 2,888.68 |
| 2028 | 1,984.47 | 3,725.02 | 5,465.57 |
| 2029 | 5,207.80 | 10,820.38 | 16,432.95 |
| 2030 | 2,421.73 | 5,480.78 | 8,539.83 |
| 2031 | 2,834.47 | 4,581.12 | 6,327.77 |
| 2032 | 4,344.39 | 9,626.76 | 14,909.12 |
| 2033 | 13,453.50 | 24,640.59 | 35,827.68 |
| 2034 | 5,279.95 | 11,306.90 | 17,333.85 |
| 2035 | 6,645.98 | 10,221.00 | 13,796.02 |
| 2036 | 11,300.80 | 25,980.99 | 40,661.18 |
2025 outlook: The average price range of $3,978.94 – $7,537.24 implies a potential upside of roughly 79.6% from current levels.
2026‑2031 outlook: Forecasts span $1,110.77 – $10,820.38; should the upper bound be reached, the 2029 price could represent an approximate 157.8% increase.
2031‑2036 outlook: A peak of $25,980.99 is projected; if realized, cumulative growth from today to 2036 could exceed 518.9%. These figures are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
Tax note: Capital gains from cryptocurrency transactions may be taxable in your jurisdiction. Users should consult local tax regulations or a professional advisor regarding any potential obligations.
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⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto prices are highly volatile. This is not investment advice.
