Bitaigen Research Will Altcoins Make a Comeback? Why the “Bitcoin (BTC) Season” Still Holds Strong in 2026
Cryptocurrency traders and a range of market indicators currently show no clear sign of an altcoin rally. At the same time, continued institutional participation is helping Bitcoin further cement its dominant position in the market.
The altcoin market has not displayed any reversal signals yet, making a short‑term comeback unlikely. Ongoing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs keep the Bitcoin dominance ratio (BTC.D) hovering near the relatively high 60 % level. Technical metrics indicate that TOTAL2 (the total market cap excluding BTC) is residing in a bearish channel; concentrated liquidity and clearer regulatory frameworks suggest that the “Bitcoin season” is expected to persist for the foreseeable future.
By examining institutional fund flows, technical indicators, and market sentiment, we explain why Bitcoin continues to lead and assess the short‑term recovery prospects for altcoins. The full article helps readers make a rational judgment about the next market cycle and is worth a careful read.
Key Takeaways
- The SuperTrend indicator has issued a “sell” signal, historically associated with sharp contractions in total altcoin market cap.
- Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise, while the Altcoin Seasonal Index remains low, indicating no reversal signals in the market.
- Institutional capital is becoming more concentrated, with giants such as BlackRock favoring Bitcoin over higher‑risk alternative tokens.
Altcoin Total Market Cap Shifts to a Bearish Trend
The sustained selling pressure on altcoins is clearly reflected in the decline of TOTAL2. TOTAL2 represents the aggregate market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin.
According to TradingView data, the TOTAL2 metric peaked at $1.77 trillion on October 10 and has been trending downward ever since, falling 32 % by December to $1.19 trillion. This drop pushed TOTAL2 below key support levels, including the 50‑week exponential moving average (EMA) currently situated around $1.3 trillion.
In addition, the technical outlook presents the following bearish signals:
- SuperTrend reversal – In mid‑November the indicator switched from red to green and crossed above the price line.
- Historical pattern recurrence – Similar indicator confirmations during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets preceded deep corrections of 85.5 % and 66 %, respectively.
At present, the altcoin sector remains entrenched in a downtrend, with TOTAL2 consolidating inside an ascending triangle pattern.
Trader Merlijn noted on X (formerly Twitter): “The altcoin market cap is caught in a brutal decline.” He added that while the $1.15 trillion support level is currently holding, a breach of the triangle’s lower boundary could trigger a further 30 % plunge to roughly $830 billion. Only a decisive break above the $1.68 trillion resistance zone would open the door to a potential “alternative bull market.”
Analyst CryptoDaddi expressed a more cautious stance, arguing that future capital is likely to concentrate on a limited handful of carefully selected altcoins, making a broad‑based “everyone‑up” rally increasingly improbable.
Bitcoin’s Unshakable Dominance
Entering 2025, Bitcoin’s control over the broader crypto ecosystem has tightened, leaving progressively less room for altcoins to shine.
The Bitcoin Dominance Ratio (BTC.D) measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market cap. After breaching 65 % in June, the ratio dipped to 57 % in September before re‑entering an upward trajectory, consistently setting higher highs and higher lows.
Today, Bitcoin’s dominance hovers around 59.27 %, signaling that the market remains firmly in a “Bitcoin bull phase.”
Since September 2023, the metric has never fallen below the critical 50 % threshold. This structural shift is largely driven by widespread institutional adoption. With the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, tens of billions of USD from traditional finance (TradFi) have flowed into the market.
Institutional investors such as BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin in their asset‑allocation strategies because of its relative stability and clearer regulatory framework, whereas many altcoins are viewed as lower‑liquidity, higher‑risk assets. Data shows that BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF attracted over $25 billion of inflows in 2025, underscoring the preference of corporate buyers for BTC.
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We Are Still in a “Bitcoin Season”
Meanwhile, quantitative metrics that gauge the onset of an altcoin bull market all point to a continued delay in any breakout.
| Core Metric | Current Value / Performance | Market Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| **Altcoin Speculation Index** | Only **21 %** of top altcoins outperform BTC | Low speculative enthusiasm |
| **Market Breadth** | Merely **8 %** of altcoins above their 50‑day moving average | Overall market weakness |
| **Altcoin Seasonal Index** | **18 / 100** | Deep “Bitcoin season” condition |
According to CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” metric (which compares the 90‑day performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies against Bitcoin), the current score of 18 falls far short of the 75‑point threshold that traditionally signals an altcoin‑driven rally.
Analyst Money Ape highlighted that the index has sunk to a historic low, meaning the market is presently defined entirely by the “Bitcoin season.” Recent reports confirm that Bitcoin’s performance has outpaced the vast majority of crypto sub‑segments, indicating capital is increasingly gravitating toward assets with high liquidity and regulatory certainty.
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This article provides an in‑depth analysis of the current altcoin landscape and Bitcoin’s continued dominance. For more professional insights on cryptocurrency market trends, stay tuned to Bitaigen (比特根) and related content.
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⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto prices are highly volatile. This is not investment advice.
