Bitcoin 2024 Outlook: Central Banks, Hedge Funds & Industry

Explore exclusive forecasts for Bitcoin in 2024 from top central banks, hedge funds and industry leaders. Analyze supply scarcity, macro‑financial trends and regulatory dynamics shaping price targets.

Our Bitaigen editorial team has compiled exclusive perspectives from the world’s leading institutions on Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2024, covering central banks, hedge funds, and industry giants. By dissecting supply scarcity, macro‑financial trends, and regulatory dynamics, this article helps readers clarify the key drivers behind the projected price ranges and capture the core signals amid a sea of mixed information.

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Given the expectations from heavyweight asset managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco regarding a Bitcoin ETF, combined with the anticipated halving in April 2024, price forecasts for Bitcoin in 2024 vary widely—from roughly $45,000 up to $400,000. Different institutions arrive at distinct intervals based on their assessments of supply, demand, and macro‑economic factors.

1. Pantera Capital: $150,000

Led by Dan Morehead, Pantera Capital stated in its August “Blockchain Letter” that Bitcoin could climb to $147,843 following the 2024 halving. The firm relies on the Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model, arguing that the heightened scarcity of Bitcoin will materially lift its valuation.

The 2020 halving reduced the influx of new Bitcoin by 43 % compared with the previous cycle, an effect that could translate into roughly a 23 % price uplift.
By extrapolating from historical patterns, Pantera expects the price to rise from about $35,000 before the halving to roughly $148,000 afterward.

2. Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000

In a July research report, Standard Chartered Bank issued a bullish outlook, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $50,000 by year‑end and potentially $120,000 by the close of 2024. This upward revision from the $100,000 estimate posted in April is driven by two primary factors:

Ongoing banking sector stress that is boosting demand for digital assets.
Improved miner profitability, which eases the pressure of fresh‑coin sell‑offs.

Geoff Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Asset Research, highlighted that miners, while securing the ledger, also influence the net supply of newly minted Bitcoin.

3. JPMorgan Chase: $45,000

Global investment bank JPMorgan Chase projects a more modest appreciation for Bitcoin, setting a target price of $45,000. The forecast is anchored to the parallel rise in gold prices—once gold breached the $2,000 per ounce threshold, non‑central‑bank gold holdings totaled approximately $3 trillion, suggesting Bitcoin may assume a similar “digital gold” role among private investors.

4. Matrixport: $125,000

Matrixport released a July outlook that envisions Bitcoin possibly reaching $125,000 by the end of 2024. Their optimism rests on several observations:

Mid‑2024 Bitcoin breaking above $31,000, marking the highest level in more than a year.
Historically, such milestones often signal the end of a bear market and the commencement of a bull run.

Comparing data from 2015, 2019, and 2020, Matrixport estimates a potential 123 % return over 12 months and a 310 % return over 18 months, corresponding to price targets of $65,539 and $125,731, respectively.

5. Tim Draper: $250,000

Venture capitalist Tim Draper remains highly bullish on Bitcoin. Although his earlier prediction that Bitcoin would hit $250,000 by June 2023 did not materialize, he told Bloomberg Television in July that regulatory actions—such as investigations into Coinbase and Binance—may trigger a short‑term correction, after which Bitcoin could still aim for the $250,000 range during 2024‑2025.

6. Berenberg: $56,630

German investment bank Berenberg raised its outlook in July, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $56,630 at the time of the April 2024 halving. Two key catalysts underpin this adjustment:

Market sentiment improving in anticipation of the halving event.
A growing number of institutional participants expressing strong interest.

Berenberg also lifted its price target for MicroStrategy to $510, reflecting the rising value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings and an improving outlook for its software business.

7. Blockware Solutions: $400,000

In August, Blockware Intelligence published its “2024 Halving Analysis” report, exploring a scenario where Bitcoin could surpass $400,000 following the next halving (projected for 2024/25). Core points from the report include:

The halving mechanism weeds out inefficient miners, curbing sell pressure and enhancing scarcity.
Once supply contracts, demand becomes the dominant price driver; historical data shows demand often spikes after a halving.
On‑chain metrics already display a positive sentiment toward the upcoming halving, suggesting capital may be deployed rapidly as demand materializes, propelling the price sharply upward.

8. Summary

Beyond the institutions detailed above, a variety of other forecasts circulate in the market:

Cathie Wood of ARK Invest envisions Bitcoin reaching $1 million.
Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital projects a $500,000 target.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global sees $180,000.
Robert Kiyosaki and Adam Back both anticipate prices around $100,000.
Arthur Hayes predicts roughly $70,000.

As of the time of writing (September 26 2023), Bitcoin’s spot price stands at $26,286.

Bitcoin 1‑day price chart below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line

BTC 1‑day chart below the 23.6% Fib level | Source: TradingView.com – BTCUSD