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Bitfinex Analyst: Bitcoin Is Entering a Consolidation Phase
*The Block* cited an analyst from Bitfinex who argued that the recent pull‑back in Bitcoin is largely the result of a combined sell‑off by long‑term holders and the so‑called “whales.” Both exchange‑trade volumes and over‑the‑counter (OTC) data indicate that these large players have been gradually reducing their positions in recent days. Historical patterns suggest that, in the late stage of a bull market, major holders tend to unwind their stakes as the market shifts into a sideways consolidation. The current downward trend in open interest therefore adds a modest amount of downside pressure on price. *(U.S. users accessing Bitfinex should ensure compliance with local regulations; if they use Binance, they must trade on Binance.US rather than the global platform.)*
Matrixport: Bitcoin May Experience a Short‑Term Pullback Before Setting a New Record
The crypto‑asset service platform Matrixport posted a graphic and commentary on X (formerly Twitter) on the evening of June 18, noting that although market sentiment is presently weak, the size of open interest remains elevated. The firm highlighted that Bitcoin’s funding rate is on a declining trajectory, which signals waning optimism; however, the high level of open interest could act as a support cushion after a brief correction, potentially enabling the price to break previous all‑time highs again.
In this article we compile the latest viewpoints from Bitfinex and Matrixport, dissect the sentiment shift behind the falling Bitcoin funding rate, and combine it with the signal from elevated open interest to explore the likelihood of a short‑term pullback and the subsequent upside potential. If you want to understand why the market may still have underlying support, keep reading.
What Potential Catalysts Could Lift the Market?
1. Bloomberg Analyst Projects an Ethereum Spot ETF Launch on July 2
After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved several Ethereum spot‑ETF Form 19b‑4 filings on May 24, SEC Chair Gary Gensler indicated during a June 13 hearing that the agency expects to approve the S‑1 registration statements for those ETFs “sometime this summer.” Building on that guidance, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas moved the anticipated listing date for an Ethereum spot ETF forward to July 2 in a June 16 note, stating that the SEC’s comments to issuers have been brief and free of material hurdles, and that a response could be issued within a week, potentially allowing approval as early as the following week. All values are expressed in U.S. dollars (USD).
2. Expert: The Fed May Upgrade September Rate‑Cut Outlook to Two Cuts
The Federal Reserve’s current dot‑plot shows only one rate cut expected for the year, but the plot is advisory and can be revised as conditions evolve. Omair Sharif, an analyst at InflationInsights, remarked on the day the Fed announced its policy decision that, given inflation still exhibits “post‑traumatic stress,” the central bank could adjust its September outlook to anticipate two cuts instead of one.
3. Cryptocurrency Becomes a Key Battleground in the U.S. Presidential Election
The November 2024 U.S. presidential election is approaching. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is actively courting voters, while incumbent President Joe Biden faces a re‑election challenge. To attract constituents who are friendly toward digital assets, the Biden administration may continue to ease regulatory pressure on the crypto industry, thereby increasing its influence in the electoral contest.
Overview of the Market’s Recent Performance
Since the beginning of June, the broader cryptocurrency market has been on a downward trajectory. Bitcoin fell from a peak of $72,000 on the 7th, slid to a low of $64,051 in the early hours of the 19th, and then rebounded briefly. At the time of writing, it closed at $65,162, reflecting a 24‑hour decline that narrowed to 0.64 %. Although overall sentiment remains subdued, the aforementioned positive drivers could inject fresh momentum into the market in the days ahead.
The content above summarizes Matrixport’s short‑term outlook for Bitcoin, Bitfinex’s analysis of the current environment, and several factors that might help revive market activity. For more details, follow the ongoing coverage from Bitaigen (比特根).
*Please note that cryptocurrency gains may be subject to tax in your jurisdiction, and you should consult a tax professional for guidance.*
Related Reading
- How to Safely Buy Bitcoin in Mainland China (Regulated)
- Bitcoin Funding Turns Negative: Bottom Entry Signal?
- Bitcoin Negative Funding Rate May Push BTC to $90K
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