Bitaigen Research 
The Bitcoin derivatives market has recently issued a clear warning signal: the options‑skew ratio has climbed to 20%, indicating that traders are exercising extreme caution toward the current rebound. At the same time, the price has recovered to roughly $71,500, but whether it has truly escaped the prior sell‑off remains debatable.
In this article we examine the recent price recovery of Bitcoin and the subtle divergence in the derivatives market, focusing on changes in options skew and leveraged positions. Our goal is to help readers assess whether the current move is a brief warming or a precursor to a larger correction. For the full details and possible future scenarios, keep reading.
Key Takeaways
- Options‑skew has risen to 20%, suggesting professional investors are increasingly worried about a new round of capital liquidation.
- Although Bitcoin has reclaimed part of Thursday’s decline, weak leveraged demand limits its upside relative to gold or technology stocks.
Since sliding to a low of $60,150 last Friday, Bitcoin has rallied about 17% in total. Nevertheless, derivatives data remind market participants to stay alert: demand for long positions targeting the $70,000‑plus area remains insufficient. Notably, roughly $1.8 billion of leveraged long futures contracts were forced to liquidate over the past five days, hinting that large hedge funds or market makers may already be facing liquidation risk.
Cumulative Bitcoin futures liquidation amount (USD) – source: CoinGlass
Unlike the dramatic crash on 10 October 2025 that set a record $4.65 billion futures liquidation, the recent downtrend has unfolded as three successive weeks of sustained pressure. While margin shortfalls forced some contracts to be liquidated, the overall open‑interest in futures continues to grow, with longs gradually increasing their exposure in the $70k‑$90k band.
Total open‑interest in Bitcoin futures (BTC) – source: CoinGlass
As of Friday, the open‑interest for Bitcoin futures on major exchanges stood at 527,850 BTC, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (U.S. readers should use Binance.US for accessing these futures markets, as the global Binance platform is not available in the United States.) Although the nominal value of these contracts fell from $44.3 billion to $35.8 billion—a drop of about 20%—this decline mirrors the roughly 21% price drop Bitcoin experienced over the same seven‑day period. The data suggest that, even as prices keep sliding, long positions are still being added.
One of the key gauges for whether whales or market makers have turned bullish is the Bitcoin futures basis rate, which measures the spread between futures prices and spot prices. In a neutral environment, the annualized basis should sit between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement horizon.
Annualized premium of two‑month Bitcoin futures – source: laevitas.ch
On Friday the basis slipped to 2%, the lowest level in more than a year. While demand for bullish leverage remains thin, even if Bitcoin breaks the $70,000 mark, confidence may recover more slowly among sophisticated participants than among retail investors, especially given that the current price is still 44% below its all‑time high.
Bitcoin Derivatives Metrics Indicate Extreme Fear
In the options market, the loss of confidence in Bitcoin is especially evident. Heavy demand for put (sell) options has pushed the skew metric above 6%; conversely, when “fear of missing out” starts to dominate, premium on call (buy) options can drive the skew into negative territory.
Put‑call skew for two‑month BTC options on Deribit – source: laevitas.ch
By Friday, the options‑skew ratio had climbed to 20%, a rare level typically interpreted as a sign of market panic. For comparison, the skew on 21 November 2025 was 11% when Bitcoin had fallen from $111,177 to $80,620 within 20 days—a decline of roughly 28%. The current pullback lacks a clear catalyst, allowing fear and uncertainty to accumulate naturally.
The market widely speculates that large market makers, exchanges, or hedge funds may already be experiencing funding‑chain stress, further eroding investor confidence and suggesting ample downside potential ahead. Consequently, bullish momentum remains weak, and derivatives indicators continue to display a high‑fear profile.
This concludes the full analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) rebounding to $71,500 after a historic sell‑off while derivatives metrics stay soft. For more related coverage, stay tuned to Bitaigen (比特根).
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