Bitaigen Research In this article we outline the VanEck CEO’s perspective on Bitcoin’s current price action, focusing on how the four‑year halving cycle influences the market bottom and examining multiple factors such as ETF demand, the US dollar’s trajectory, and regulatory developments. If you want to understand the underlying logic and potential turning points ahead, keep reading.
VanEck Chief Executive Officer Jan van Eck believes that Bitcoin’s price is approaching a bottom and that the once‑every‑four‑years halving cycle is drawing to a close, with an expected rebound around 2026.
Jan van Eck points out that analysts often over‑complicate Bitcoin’s recent price movements; in reality, the four‑year cycle is the primary driver that has been suppressing price. In a CNBC interview, the VanEck CEO said the firm expects Bitcoin to gradually recover this year because the price volatility over the past few months has been driven primarily by the quadrennial halving cycle, not by any fundamental shift in Bitcoin itself.
“Bitcoin’s supply cap is 21 million coins, and the halving that occurs every four years cuts miners’ block rewards in half,” he explained.
“The investment pattern has always been the same: three years of rising prices followed by a sharp decline in the fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So we are currently in a bear market, but the bottom has been reached and a rebound is likely.”
The Debate Around the Four‑Year Cycle
- ETF demand: The emergence of exchange‑traded funds has boosted macro‑level demand.
- Weakening USD: A depreciating US dollar could provide support for Bitcoin.
- Regulatory progress: Positive regulatory signals are viewed as a favorable factor.
Over the past year, discussion of the four‑year cryptocurrency cycle has been unusually intense. Analysts are split, debating whether the model remains applicable after increased institutional adoption and greater market maturity.
At the time VanEck’s comments were released, Bitcoin had risen 2.6 % in the previous 24 hours, trading at $68,400 (U.S. investors should use Binance.US rather than the global Binance platform, and fiat can be transferred via SEPA or SWIFT). According to data from CoinGecko, the cumulative gain over the last seven days stood at 7.6 %.
Geopolitical Factors
Recent escalations in geopolitical tension—specifically, airstrikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation—could also provide short‑term support for Bitcoin. VanEck speculates that the economic uncertainty generated by the conflict increases the appeal of crypto payment channels, making them a viable alternative for moving funds outside the traditional banking system.
“When people are looking for a way to settle transactions if a resolution with Iran is reached, how do they move the money? I think the UAE, Dubai and the broader region are very welcoming of crypto,” he said.
“If you want to transfer funds to a reliable counterpart, using a crypto payment corridor may be safer than relying on the already‑aged Iranian banking infrastructure.”
The above constitutes a detailed exposition from the VanEck CEO on Bitcoin’s bottoming process and the nearing end of the four‑year cycle. For further related material, please follow additional articles on Bitaigen (比特根).
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