Bitcoin Rebounds on Spot‑ETF Inflows: Short‑Term Impact

Bitcoin surged after a spot‑ETF inflow, sparking a rebound. This analysis compares macro trends with safe‑haven assets to highlight risks and opportunities.

We have observed that Bitcoin recently showed a clear rebound after a strong influx of spot‑ETF capital, yet it still remains far from the high levels that the market had previously anticipated. This article will dissect the short‑term price impact of these capital flows and, by juxtaposing macro‑economic trends with the performance of traditional safe‑haven assets, help investors gauge the potential risks and opportunities ahead.

Bitcoin surged following a massive inflow into spot‑ETF funds, but it is still far from the $105,000 target level; achieving that price in the short term remains challenging, and investors must keep an eye on macro‑risk and market sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 5.5% on Wednesday, hitting a fresh high not seen in more than 60 days. Earlier in the week, spot‑ETF products attracted a cumulative $840 million of net inflows on Monday and Tuesday. As the upward trajectory for Bitcoin becomes clearer, whether the cryptocurrency can once again test the $105,000 mark in the near term remains to be seen.

Bitcoin (BTC) rises with massive spot‑ETF inflows, but $105,000 seems out of reach

Price Movement Compared with Traditional Assets

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $97,000, yet the derivatives market has not yet confirmed further upside.
In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite, which is heavily weighted toward technology stocks, still hasn’t broken through the 26,000‑point barrier that held since early November 2025.
Gold and Silver have both reached new all‑time highs in 2026, indicating that demand for classic safe‑haven assets remains robust.

Bitcoin (BTC) rises with massive spot‑ETF inflows, but $105,000 seems out of reach – Figure 2

!Nasdaq futures (left) vs BTC/USD (right)

*Source: TradingView*

Options Market Sentiment

Deribit’s 30‑day Bitcoin options delta skew (puts – calls) indicates that professional traders are still exercising caution. The current skew sits at 4 %, unchanged from a week ago, which suggests that even though Bitcoin has breached the $96,000 level, put‑option premiums continue to dominate, and the market remains skeptical about a clean break above $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) rises with massive spot‑ETF inflows, but $105,000 seems out of reach – Figure 3

Socio‑Political Risks Dampening the Upside

When large‑whale participants and market makers turn optimistic, the skew typically flips negative, reflecting rising demand for call options. The skew remaining positive today signals that bearish positions still hold the upper hand.
In the past two days, leveraged short positions have suffered $370 million in liquidations, the highest total since October 2025.

Bitcoin’s upward move hampered by rising socio‑political concerns

!Bitcoin futures liquidation amount over a 12‑hour window (USD‑denominated)

*Source: CoinGlass*

Geopolitical Factors

Following protests in Iran, former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25 % import tariff on countries that maintain commercial ties with Tehran, a move that could further strain U.S.–China–India relations.
At the same time, the Trump administration’s expressed interest in asserting control over Greenland has added another layer of uncertainty, prompting Germany’s defence minister to state that Denmark would receive assistance should a hostile acquisition attempt arise.

Bitcoin’s upward move hampered by rising socio‑political concerns – Figure 2

Macro‑Financial Environment

The U.S. two‑year Treasury yield fell to 3.51 % on Wednesday, reflecting growing investor appetite for safe‑haven assets.
The latest U.S. CPI showed a 2.7 % year‑over‑year increase, still above the Federal Reserve’s target rate.
Warren Buffett warned that the outlook for artificial intelligence remains uncertain, while Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile rose to a record $381.7 billion.
The Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.6 %, and Oracle (ORCL US) dropped 5 % after creditors sued the company for allegedly failing to disclose the additional debt needed to fund its AI expansion.

As uncertainty rises, investors are trimming equity exposure, overall risk appetite is waning, and demand for crypto assets is further suppressed.

Conclusion

It is still unclear whether Bitcoin’s two‑month downtrend has fully concluded.
Options data reveal that the market remains highly skeptical about a rapid bounce back to $105,000 in the short term.
For now, macro‑level socio‑political risks and the Federal Reserve’s balancing act between economic growth and inflation remain the primary focus for investors.

The analysis above provides a comprehensive look at why Bitcoin (BTC) has risen on the back of substantial spot‑ETF inflows, yet the $105,000 target still feels distant. For deeper dives into Bitcoin’s price dynamics, continue following Bitaigen’s other articles.

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Bitcoin Rebounds on Spot‑ETF Inflows: Short‑Term Impact