Bitaigen Research 
As global trade frictions and geopolitical risks rise in tandem, the precious‑metal market has entered a strong rally—gold has surged past the $5,000 per ounce milestone, reaching a historic high of $5,080. At the same time, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin has slipped to around $86,000, a decline of close to 30%. The divergence between the two major assets is becoming increasingly pronounced, signaling a notable shift in investors’ safe‑haven preferences.
Behind Gold's Rally
- Year‑to‑date, gold has risen 17% and is up 83% since the same period last year.
- The rapid price climb is mainly driven by the dual impact of a potential U.S. government shutdown and the Trump administration’s continued tariff hikes. Kobayashi wrote in a Monday letter, “The looming government shutdown adds fuel to the fire for the precious‑metals market.”
- Trade tensions have further escalated. Trump once threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada took action on a China‑related trade agreement, a policy outlook that has also boosted gold’s safe‑haven demand.
Cryptocurrency's Counter‑Trend Pullback
- According to TradingView data, Bitcoin fell 1.6% on the day, erasing all gains recorded so far this year. Coinbase data shows the price slipped to just below the five‑week low of $86,000.
- Compared with its October peak of $126,000, Bitcoin is down roughly 30%. Since the same period last year, Bitcoin has fallen 17% overall.
In this report we outline the factors behind gold's historic high and Bitcoin's pronounced divergence, analyze how global policies and geopolitical risks are reshaping the safe‑haven asset landscape, and offer a deep assessment of the short‑term outlook for both markets to help readers grasp the shift in investment perspective.
Decoupling of Bitcoin and Gold Correlation
The price trajectories of the two assets are showing a clear decoupling: gold continues to climb under safe‑haven sentiment, while Bitcoin has experienced a marked pullback during the same period. This split is especially evident when market sentiment turns more conservative.
Other Precious Metals Performance
- Silver price broke above $107 per ounce for the first time, up 48% year‑to‑date.
- Ethereum also faced pressure, falling below $2,800, a drop of over 40% from its August all‑time high of $4,946.
Investor Perspective
BTSE exchange Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei told Cointelegraph, “Gold’s rise and the decline of crypto assets are mainly driven by the risk of a U.S. government shutdown at the end of the month.” He further explained that, despite stronger U.S. economic growth and employment data, markets—anticipating that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged—are preferring to allocate capital to traditional safe‑haven assets such as gold. Mei added, “In uncertain times, capital typically flows to U.S. Treasury bonds and gold, but the shadow of a shutdown and Trump’s recent tariff threats toward Greenland have dampened interest in Treasuries, pushing investors toward gold.”
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