Bitaigen Research 
On‑chain analyst Willy Woo says that Bitcoin’s current price range may not have bottomed yet, warning that further downside is possible before a true cyclical low is reached.
He believes Bitcoin could experience a short‑term bounce that catches investors off‑guard, after which the overall downtrend would likely resume dominance.
“A bull‑market trap is forming,” Woo wrote in a Saturday post on X, referring to a false breakout and implying that the market is slipping into a sustained upward phase. He added that this pattern could “last until the end of April.”
Woo emphasizes that his view is based on liquidity conditions rather than price alone. “If capital flows back and attracts the right long‑term investors, I would consider revising my stance,” he said.
In this article we compile Willy Woo’s in‑depth take on Bitcoin’s current trajectory, focusing on the logic behind the so‑called “bull‑market trap” and the potential signals of a mid‑bear market. By combining a liquidity perspective with market‑sentiment analysis, we aim to help readers gauge possible future moves – a read worth taking the time for.
Bitcoin “firmly” positioned in the mid‑bear market
From a long‑term liquidity standpoint, Woo argues that Bitcoin is “firmly in the mid‑bear market.” He notes: “Typically after a rapid decline, BTC enters a consolidation phase, then launches a rebound to test resistance.”
According to CoinMarketCap data, since the all‑time high of $126,000 reached in October, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 46.82 %, trading at $67,012 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin has risen 3.74 % over the past 30 days (source: CoinMarketCap). Woo believes this level is not a bottom and that the asset still has room to move lower. Crypto‑data platform Santiment shares a similar view, indicating that large‑holder selling remains active while retail buyers are active below the $70,000 mark.
Santiment explains: “When retail participants are buying and whales are selling, it usually means the correction is not over yet.”
Bitcoin investor flow continues “steady recovery”
Woo points out that although Bitcoin spiked to $74,000 on Wednesday and failed to stay above the “$70‑plus” range, investor liquidity has been in a “steady recovery” since mid‑February.
He is not the only analyst who sees Bitcoin still entrenched in a bear market. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowan recently told *The Magazine* that 2026 is shaping up to be a “bear‑market year” for Bitcoin, making a new all‑time high unlikely.
On‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant added on Thursday: “Despite the recent bounce, Bitcoin remains in a bear market.”
Earlier, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index—the most widely used sentiment gauge for crypto investors—briefly rose on Wednesday before slipping back into “extreme fear” territory.
The above constitutes Willy Woo’s detailed breakdown of the formation of a Bitcoin (BTC) “bull‑market trap” and the arrival of a mid‑bear market phase. For more material on Bitcoin “traps” and the mid‑bear market, follow the other articles published by Bitaigen.
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