Bitaigen Research 
We have organized Polymarket’s core mechanism, deposit workflow, and compliance risks in Taiwan. Through this comprehensive tutorial, readers can quickly grasp how the platform operates, master safe‑usage techniques, and identify which prediction topics might run afoul of the law, enabling a well‑informed and prudent approach to participating in decentralized prediction markets.
TL;DR
- Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on the Polygon network, where users can wager real capital on future events such as elections, crypto‑asset price movements, policy directions, and more.
- Its core philosophy is “price equals probability.” Participants allocate funds to vote; the eventual outcome of the event directly determines profit or loss, often reflecting reality more closely than traditional polls.
- In Taiwan, betting on outcomes that involve local elections has been classified as illegal gambling, and during the 2024 presidential election authorities seized assets from participants. Local users are advised to avoid any predictions tied to Taiwanese political elections to stay clear of the Election and Recall Act. If you wish to engage with international events, ensure you isolate your network and funds, and try to avoid using domestic centralized exchanges (CEX) for direct deposits and withdrawals, thereby reducing the risk of triggering exchange‑level risk controls.
What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a decentralized binary‑prediction platform where users can buy and sell contracts (called Shares) on a simple “Yes/No” outcome. Each market has a clear settlement rule and a trustworthy source for the final result; after the event concludes, holders of the correct‑answer contract can redeem the face value of 1 USDC per share.
Unlike conventional gambling sites, Polymarket leverages market mechanisms to let a global crowd collectively discover the truth, rather than betting against a house. Its coverage spans politics, cryptocurrency prices, macro‑economics, pop culture, sports, and many other domains.
The platform runs on the Polygon blockchain, with all asset custody and trade matching performed automatically by smart contracts, guaranteeing transparency and immutability.
How Does Polymarket Work?
Polymarket’s trading model is based on binary options, reducing each prediction to two possible outcomes: Yes or No.
- Price equals probability: Each Yes or No contract trades between 0.00 and 1.00 USDC.
- Meaning of the price: The quoted price directly reflects the market’s assessment of the event’s likelihood. For example, “Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 by the end of 2025?” If the Yes contract is priced at 0.60, the market is assigning roughly a 60 % chance to that outcome.
- Settlement rule: If the final result is Yes, every Yes‑share redeems for 1 USDC, while No‑shares become worthless; the opposite applies if the outcome is No.
- Closing positions early: You do not have to wait until the event ends to lock in profit. If you purchase a Yes contract at 0.60 USDC and the price later climbs to 0.80 USDC, you can sell the share and realize the gain.
What Makes Polymarket Unique?
- No house: The platform uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) model; counterparties are other users or liquidity providers, and the platform itself never takes the other side of a bet.
- Real‑money‑driven opinions: Compared with opinion polls that rely solely on questionnaires, predictions backed by actual capital incentivize participants to conduct rational analysis, often resulting in higher accuracy.
- KYC‑free: As long as you have a compatible crypto wallet (MetaMask, Phantom, etc.), you can connect and start trading without a cumbersome registration process, except for a few IP‑restricted jurisdictions.
- Low fees: Built on Polygon’s high‑throughput network, gas costs are negligible, and the platform subsidizes gas for the majority of transactions.
Polymarket correctly forecast Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, further validating the advantage of real‑money‑backed polls.
Availability of Polymarket in Taiwan
Technical Perspective
Polymarket does not block Taiwanese IP addresses; the National Police Agency has lifted related restrictions, allowing Taiwanese users to access the platform directly via a wallet connection.
Legal Perspective
Taiwanese authorities treat Polymarket as a gambling service, especially when it is used to bet on local public‑office elections. Such activities are expressly prohibited by the Presidential and Vice‑Presidential Election and Recall Act and the Public Officer Election and Recall Act. Engaging in these markets may constitute a serious violation.
Why It Was Banned
During the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election, a market predicting the election outcome appeared on Polymarket. Pursuant to the relevant statutes, investigative units (e.g., the Shilin and Yunlin District Prosecutors Offices) traced on‑chain fund flows, identified several users who funded their bets through domestic exchanges, summoned them for questioning, and ultimately settled most cases with deferred prosecution and fines, leaving a legal record.
Safety Recommendations for Using Polymarket in Taiwan
- Never trade on markets related to Taiwanese elections: Any market involving local politics or elections crosses a legal red line.
- Fund isolation: Avoid transferring funds directly from domestic compliant exchanges such as Max, BitoPro, or XREX to a Polymarket wallet. It is recommended to use a decentralized wallet as an intermediary, or route assets through overseas exchanges (e.g., Binance, Bitget, or for U.S. residents, Binance.US) via cross‑chain or cross‑border bridges. You may also consider using a crypto‑enabled prepaid card (U‑Card) to reduce the risk of account linkage.
- Focus on international events: Restrict participation to predictions about Federal Reserve rate decisions, crypto‑asset prices, weather, housing markets, sports events, and other topics that do not fall under Taiwanese jurisdiction.
Polymarket Deposit Guide
Method 1: On‑Chain Transfer
- Log in to Polymarket and click Deposit in the top‑right corner.
- Choose Transfer Crypto.
- Send USDC or any other supported token from Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, or another compatible chain to the address displayed by the platform.
Method 2: Credit‑Card Purchase
Polymarket integrates MoonPay, allowing you to buy crypto instantly with a card. Fees are relatively high and some banks may block the transaction, so Taiwanese users are generally discouraged from this route.
Method 3: PayPal Purchase
PayPal deposits are also supported, but the cost structure is similar to MoonPay. Evaluate the expense before proceeding.
How to Use Polymarket
- Select a market: Browse the homepage for topics that interest you, such as “DOGE Price” or “US Election.”
- View the order book: Inside the market you will see current “Buy Yes” and “Buy No” quotes. If you believe the event will occur, click Buy Yes; if you think it will not, click Buy No.
- Place the order: Enter the amount of USDC you wish to allocate; the interface will automatically calculate the number of Shares you can acquire. Confirm and sign the transaction with your wallet.
- Hold or close: In the Portfolio section you can monitor your positions. You may keep the shares until settlement or sell them early (via Sell) when the price moves in your favor to realize profit.
Polymarket Withdrawal Guide
- Navigate to Portfolio in the top‑right corner.
- Click Withdraw, then select Withdraw again.
- Input the recipient’s Polygon‑network wallet address (if you intend to move funds back to an exchange, verify that the exchange accepts USDC on Polygon).
- Confirm the amount and any applicable gas fee, then submit the transaction.
Risks and Limitations
- Smart‑contract risk: Although the code has undergone audits, any DeFi protocol remains susceptible to potential vulnerabilities or exploits.
- Oracle disputes: Polymarket relies on UMA’s optimistic oracle to determine outcomes. For ambiguously worded events (e.g., “Did Trump ever say X?”), the oracle’s decision may be contested, potentially locking funds or delivering an unexpected settlement. Historical incidents have shown large holders attempting to sway oracle votes, leading to disputed results.
- Liquidity risk: Popular markets enjoy deep liquidity and tight spreads; niche markets may exhibit wide spreads, making it difficult to exit a position without price impact.
- Regulatory risk: Jurisdictions differ on whether prediction markets constitute gambling. Users should verify the legal status of such platforms in their own country before participating.
- Tax considerations: Gains realized on Polymarket may be taxable in the user’s local jurisdiction. Consult a tax professional to understand reporting obligations.
Other Major Prediction Platforms
| Platform | Blockchain / Type | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| **Polymarket** | Polygon | Largest liquidity, best UX, KYC‑free in most regions |
| **Kalshi** | U.S.‑regulated platform | CFTC‑regulated, requires KYC, US‑only, supports fiat |
| **Opinion Labs** | BNB Chain | Backed by YZI Labs, ranked third, strong growth outlook |
| **Melee** | Solana | Permissionless, creator‑economy driven |
Fee Structure
In most cases Polymarket does not charge fees. The sole exception is the 15‑minute cryptocurrency market (ultra‑short‑term high‑frequency predictions), where takers incur a small fee while makers pay nothing and may even receive a rebate.
| Item | Fee? |
|---|---|
| USDC deposit | ❌ |
| USDC withdrawal | ❌ |
| Standard market trades | ❌ |
| 15‑minute crypto market (Taker) | ✅ Small fee |
| 15‑minute crypto market (Maker) | ❌ May receive rebate |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Can I create my own market on Polymarket?
The platform does not yet support fully permission‑less market creation. Currently, markets are launched by the core team or invited whitelist curators to ensure clear descriptions and oracle‑compatible outcomes. If you wish to propose a new market, submit a proposal in the submit-a-polymarket channel on the official Discord following the prescribed template.
Has Polymarket issued its own token?
As of the writing of this article, Polymarket has not released a native token. The community anticipates a possible airdrop in the future and the team has hinted at launching its own Layer‑2 chain. To stay eligible for any potential airdrop, maintain genuine, compliant trading activity and avoid volume‑inflation tactics that could trigger anti‑abuse filters.
What advantages does Polymarket have over traditional polls?
Traditional polls suffer from sample bias and low respondent cost, which can distort results. Polymarket participants risk real capital, so incorrect predictions lead to loss, encouraging deeper research. Empirical data shows that prediction markets often outperform conventional polls in elections and other domains.
| Feature | Polymarket | Traditional Poll |
|---|---|---|
| Respondent cost | Real money | Near‑zero |
| Real‑time updates | High | Low |
| Bias level | Low | High |
Is there an API?
Yes. Polymarket provides a full‑featured API that enables developers and professional traders to place orders programmatically and retrieve market data. This capability fuels a vibrant ecosystem of market‑making bots. Documentation links are available on the official website.
How do I contact customer support?
Polymarket primarily offers support through its Discord community. Click the Discord link at the bottom of the website, join the Support channel, and open a ticket to receive assistance.
Is Polymarket a scam?
No. Polymarket is one of the most respected prediction‑market projects in the blockchain space, praised multiple times by Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin and backed by several prominent venture capital firms. Users should remain vigilant against phishing sites—always verify the URL polymarket.com—and be aware that outcome determinations can be contentious, representing a mechanistic risk rather than a fraudulent scheme.
Who founded Polymarket?
Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, a young crypto entrepreneur dedicated to promoting “information market” theory, advocating price discovery as a means to uncover truthful data.
Conclusion
Polymarket stands out as one of the most successful prediction‑market applications within the Web 3 ecosystem, turning forecasting itself into a tradable, liquid asset. For Taiwanese users seeking insight into global trends, it offers a convenient gateway.
Remember to steer clear of any market that references Taiwanese elections; if you interact with the platform for airdrops or other purposes, practice strict fund isolation and avoid sending assets directly from frequently used exchange addresses to mitigate the risk of being flagged for gambling‑related activity.
This article ends here. For more in‑depth Polymarket coverage, search for past Bitaigen (比特根) articles or continue exploring the related links below. Happy trading, and thank you for supporting Bitaigen!
Related Reading
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- How Polymarket Whales Earn Six‑Figure Returns with Quantitative Market‑Making
- Earn $8,000 in 4 Days as a Polymarket LP: Step‑by‑Step Guide
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