Bitaigen Research Key Points
- SOL’s technical pattern is forming a classic head‑and‑shoulders top, suggesting the price could break below $50, possibly even lower.
- The current MVRV band provides support around $75; a break of this level could expose the asset to a $30 downside risk.
Over the past 30 days, Solana (SOL) has fallen roughly 38 %, hitting a two‑year low of $67 on Friday. Multiple industry voices argue that this seventh‑largest cryptocurrency by market cap still has room for a deeper correction, with a target range that could slide from $50 down toward $30.
In this article we examine SOL’s recent technical trajectory, highlighting classic bearish formations such as the head‑and‑shoulders top and interpreting its support zone through the MVRV band. By means of three pivotal charts, readers can gauge the potential magnitude of the next pull‑back and identify key risk levels—material worth a careful read.
2. Bottom Zone Indicated by the MVRV Band
During last week’s sharp retracement, SOL’s market cap diverged dramatically from its realized value (MVRV), establishing the current lowest support line at roughly $75. The MVRV band measures the price range relative to the average acquisition cost of holders over time—whether the current price is above or below that historical average.
Historical patterns show that SOL often continues to drift lower before touching the minimum MVRV band. In March 2022, after slipping to around $75, SOL rebounded within three weeks by roughly 87 %, climbing to a peak of $140; a similar recovery occurred in December 2020. Conversely, the November 2022 crash triggered by the FTX collapse forced SOL below this band again, after which it fell another ≈70 % in December, eventually finding a floor near $7.
Consequently, if SOL breaks beneath $75 once more, it may trigger a correction path reminiscent of the 2022 episode, aligning with the downside targets implied by the head‑and‑shoulders formation.
1. Confirmation of the Head‑and‑Shoulders Top and Target Prices
Since SOL reached a cycle high of roughly $295 in January 2025, the cumulative decline has exceeded 72 %. Across multiple time‑frames, charts display a textbook head‑and‑shoulders (H&S) pattern.
Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus posted a chart on X (formerly Twitter) that marks the completion of the H&S, stating:
“SOL has broken the macro‑level neckline of the head‑and‑shoulders; the downside may continue, with target prices potentially as low as $50.”
Following this, Nextiscrypto offered a two‑week‑candle projection, estimating a moving target around $45. Another pseudonymous analyst, Shitpoastin, noted that SOL has formed a large‑scale monthly head‑and‑shoulders over the past two years, with the next support possibly extending to $30, and that there is currently no clear substantive support underneath.
The two‑day candles also reveal that SOL breached the neckline positioned at $120 on January 30.
Applying the standard H&S measurement—adding the height of the head to the breakout point—yields a projected target of roughly $57, representing about a 32 % further decline from current levels.
Moreover, the recent daily chart further validates the formation, confirming that the break below the neckline is complete.
In summary, whether SOL will dip to $50 hinges on the interaction between the head‑and‑shoulders technical pattern and the MVRV support level. Should the critical $75 support crumble, the price could edge toward the $30 region. For deeper analysis of Solana (SOL) price dynamics, follow Bitaigen’s forthcoming reports.
Additional Notes for Global Readers
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⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto prices are highly volatile. This is not investment advice.
